Sean Park’s ‘The power of power laws‘ reminded me once again of one of my favourites – Theo A C M Classen’s “logarithmic law of usefulness”. I finally got around to doing a WikiPedia entry for it here, which I hope is notable enough to survive the WikiPedia deletionists (about which I’m entirely in agreement with Tim Bray).
It’s because of Classen’s law that I’ve declared myself as a singularity non believer (even though I enjoy reading singularity inspired SF). I think to have a real singularity it would take something that would drive an exponential increase in usefulness, and if Classen’s right that would need something to drive technology at a double exponential rate. Given how hard it has turned out to be to keep Moore’s law a reality that seems unlikely, though when Moore’s law finally has a hard collision with the laws of physics who knows what might emerge to take the place of reducing the feature size of 2D semiconductors?
Filed under: technology | 4 Comments