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	<title>Comments on: uncommon sense</title>
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	<link>http://blog.thestateofme.com/2009/10/07/uncommon-sense/</link>
	<description>IT mixology and other thoughts about tech, life the universe and everything</description>
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		<title>By: Rob Rogel</title>
		<link>http://blog.thestateofme.com/2009/10/07/uncommon-sense/#comment-333</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rob Rogel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Oct 2009 15:51:06 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I think you are mixing and confusing the concepts or risk and uncertainty... the &quot;known unknowns&quot; and the &quot;unknown unknowns&quot;. And actually this is one of the causes of the current financial crisis.
Financial people forgot about common sense while blindly relying on the efficient market hypothesis, which is enlightening but not true (they forgot about the uncertainty of the underlying economic model), while many investors relied blindly on their emotions with little or no understanding of their transactions (without understanding the underlying risk of the investments).
A process can be mechanical, and can be optimized, but usually it is based on a model. So the most important way of improving a process could actually be the improvent of the underlying model. But let&#039;s not forget that models are a simplification of reality, less complex, more understandable, but not definitely true.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you are mixing and confusing the concepts or risk and uncertainty&#8230; the &#8220;known unknowns&#8221; and the &#8220;unknown unknowns&#8221;. And actually this is one of the causes of the current financial crisis.<br />
Financial people forgot about common sense while blindly relying on the efficient market hypothesis, which is enlightening but not true (they forgot about the uncertainty of the underlying economic model), while many investors relied blindly on their emotions with little or no understanding of their transactions (without understanding the underlying risk of the investments).<br />
A process can be mechanical, and can be optimized, but usually it is based on a model. So the most important way of improving a process could actually be the improvent of the underlying model. But let&#8217;s not forget that models are a simplification of reality, less complex, more understandable, but not definitely true.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Swan</title>
		<link>http://blog.thestateofme.com/2009/10/07/uncommon-sense/#comment-332</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tim Swan]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:26:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.thestateofme.com/?p=157#comment-332</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Q. How can you tell if a politician is lying?
A. Her lips move.

I&#039;m unsure if it&#039;s possible to lay the blame at the feet of the press. Given the inate talent of our vacuous nation for sucking up anything that combines shiny, boobs and small words (as long as it doesn&#039;t require an attention span over a few seconds) you can&#039;t fault them for delivering exactly that. However, the politicians really are in a position to change these behaviours and fix their negative social consequences, they simply don&#039;t. If one assumes that it&#039;s their job, then they&#039;re not doing it. You are, of course, assuming that politicians are actually there to help fix society&#039;s issues. Common sense would tell you that&#039;s not the case ;)

I wonder how far they believe in themselves, and whether they think they&#039;re actually doing a useful job. I also wonder how much of it is based around the simple need to be seen to be doing something - anything - in response to every negative situation in society. Recent examples include pushing for mandatory flu jabs, even when the cure has the potential to be worse than the disease.

I&#039;m a huge process fan, I&#039;ll freely admit it. it&#039;s impossible for humans to successfully function if they have to analyse every choice at every turn, and we naturally reduce this to processes to allow us to auto-pilot the complex environment we live in. Process by committee, however - that is the bane of modern society. I guess that&#039;s the point where the common sense is lost - where consensus often overrides the original reason for the process (which was probably some form of risk mitigation to begin with).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Q. How can you tell if a politician is lying?<br />
A. Her lips move.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m unsure if it&#8217;s possible to lay the blame at the feet of the press. Given the inate talent of our vacuous nation for sucking up anything that combines shiny, boobs and small words (as long as it doesn&#8217;t require an attention span over a few seconds) you can&#8217;t fault them for delivering exactly that. However, the politicians really are in a position to change these behaviours and fix their negative social consequences, they simply don&#8217;t. If one assumes that it&#8217;s their job, then they&#8217;re not doing it. You are, of course, assuming that politicians are actually there to help fix society&#8217;s issues. Common sense would tell you that&#8217;s not the case ;)</p>
<p>I wonder how far they believe in themselves, and whether they think they&#8217;re actually doing a useful job. I also wonder how much of it is based around the simple need to be seen to be doing something &#8211; anything &#8211; in response to every negative situation in society. Recent examples include pushing for mandatory flu jabs, even when the cure has the potential to be worse than the disease.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a huge process fan, I&#8217;ll freely admit it. it&#8217;s impossible for humans to successfully function if they have to analyse every choice at every turn, and we naturally reduce this to processes to allow us to auto-pilot the complex environment we live in. Process by committee, however &#8211; that is the bane of modern society. I guess that&#8217;s the point where the common sense is lost &#8211; where consensus often overrides the original reason for the process (which was probably some form of risk mitigation to begin with).</p>
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